A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
